Geomorphology Lab Report Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words - 1

Geomorphology - Lab Report Example This problem affects many Americans. The term ‘IPV’ can be used to describe the sexual, physical, or psychological harm from a former or current spouse or partner. The violence can happen in same sex or heterosexual couples and does not need any sexual intimacy. The four types of IPV include physical violence, sexual violence, emotional or psychological violence, and threats of sexual or physical violence. These definitions are important because they help in monitoring the IPV incidences and examining the trends for certain duration of time. The definitions help in determining the potential of IPV and making the comparison of the problems in the whole jurisdiction. Fine definitions assist researchers in measuring the protective factors and risks involved in victimization. This informs the intervention and prevention efforts. The department will perform a child protective report investigation on child abuse, neglect and abandonment. After this, the department will make the application to the court for an action of continuous restriction against the individual responsible for managing the mental health, physical health and the children welfare care. Saltzman, L., Fanslow, J., McMahon, P., & Shelley, G. (2002). Intimate partner violence surveillance: uniform definitions and recommended data elements, version 1.0. Atlanta (GA): Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and

Negotiations - Case Study Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Negotiations - Case Study - Essay Example Lack of management skills makes the firm not to be at par with advances in technology (Hastings, 2009). Technical support makes it possible for the business to be aware of modern technologies. With this can be able to understand the operations of the industry resulting to familiarity with clients. Therefore the industry can provide reliable services and appropriate solutions to the client problems. Lieutenant observed that the company suffered from insufficient training because of one stenographer who was in charge of five semi-skilled workers. This is due to ineffective management of the company. The firm is the only one producing the special machine but has very complex production processes that have made the employees to be resistant to new innovations (Vanden & Consulting, 2008). These employees basically resist new training because top managers have not been fully trained. Ineffective management also results in high expenses as a result of ignorance over security measures. Contingency are the allowances that help the management in addressing risks within the firm. The contingency allowance ensures that managers are able to account for all the errors and omissions made in the firm. Lieutenant Early should ensure that all the company operations and activities are performed perfectly. This calls for changes in the operations of the company (Hastings, 2009). This will reduce the amount of money paid as contingency allowance because there will be an improvement in the efficiency of organizational processes. The changes will also ensure that the organization is able to address risks accordingly. The entire unknown amount should be paid for in order to reduce the contingency allowance. This makes the payment to be in time hence reducing the accumulation amount. The Trustworthy equipment company should be principled enough to pay for all the known and unknown expenses. This eases the future budget of the firm making a similar contingence allowances (Steams,

Fairytale with Child Psychology Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Fairytale with Child Psychology - Essay Example eriences, though mostly in a metaphorical way, so that they automatically develop the required psychological flexibility to cope up with ever changing nature of the entire socio-cultural system. The most important contribution of fairytales in the context of child psychology development is its universality of approach, which helps a child to expand the horizon of his/her imagination. The adult world that children are about to enter is full of surprises and different types of attractions that may appear interesting primarily but at the same time, those also can create psychological problems if a child is incapable of being adapted to those aspects. A fairytale familiarizes a child withy such unknown fathoms of life through known objects and experiences so that he/she feels free to encounter the world with in a easeful manner; consequently, can appreciate everything that suits the process of his/her psychological development and denounce all those aspects that appear to hinder such pro cess (Kready 28-29). Thesis Statement: Fairytales, within its broad scope, encompass continuous overlapping of experience and non-experienced, familiar and unfamiliar, usual and unusual, finally leading into the creation of such an ambiance which churns out the humane spontaneity and in the longer run, helps to contribute in the larger social context, â€Å"The essence of the fairy tale is natural life in a spiritual world, the usual child in the unusual environment, or the unusual in the natural environment. The combination of the usual and unusual is the chief charm †¦ where a natural child wanders through a changing environment that is unusual† (Kready 29). The literary tradition of human civilization is fertile with numerous pieces of fairytale literature, among which certain pieces are considered as classics. The Beauty and the Beast, by Jeanne Marie, Le Prince de Beaumont, is one such example that transcends the barriers of time, place, action and attained the position of one of

Lesson Plan Reflections Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Lesson Plan Reflections - Essay Example The activities I planned supported the learning objective since they were related to the lesson work and aimed at enabling the student understand the concepts for every lesson. For example, reading the story on time and pointing to the clock to depict the different time mentioned engaged the students since it entailed use of both audio and visual learning aides. This fostered the students to meet the learning objectives. The other activity for the math lesson on time around the world required the students to draw picture to indicate digital times as well as analog time. This meets the objective, which was to enable students to tell time using analog and digital clocks. I could tell whether the students were successful in achieving the objectives depending on how they performed in the after lesson assessments. For example, the objective of the Social Studies lesson on Girl on the Go was to enable students remember the different countries they had learnt in the history lesson. The story used different monuments in association with different countries. To assess if the students met the objectives, I asked post-reading questions that covered what happened in the beginning middle and end of the story. Moreover, I asked the students to mention the countries that Isabella visited, what the different countries were famous for, and they answered correctly. Additionally, the students were supposed to tell each other countries they had visited, to see if they remembered the previous lessons. I realized that student learn better through activities. For example, after reading the story about the Girl on the Go, I realized that students could easily remember the courtiers mentioned in the story as compared to other countries covered in previous lessons. They would also associate different monuments with the countries where they are located. Moreover, use of pictures and a clock in the math class made the lesson interesting and the students were excited when they realized

The Spanish Republic and the civil war 1931-1939 Essay Example for Free

The Spanish Republic and the civil war 1931-1939 Essay Tragically in 1939, after three years of bitter civil war and with the loss of around 750,000 Spanish lives, Spain fell to the rule of a Fascist dictatorship that was to last for almost four decades. The Spanish tragedy has been told and analysed by countless historians, and of these works Gabriel Jacksons The Spanish Republic and the Civil War 1931-1939 is widely referred to as the definitive liberal history of the Spanish Republic. Jackson begins with an outline of the nineteenth century monarchical and political upheavals that preceded the birth of the Spanish republic in 1931. From there, we are given a detailed account of events leading to Francos final victory in 1939 and finally a synopsis which attempts to address some of the criticisms that have been levelled at Jacksons depiction. One such criticism is that Jackson leaves a crucial part of the story untold, namely that of the struggle of workers and peasants against not just the nationalist forces, but too against the conditions of capitalism and semi-feudalism. One of Jacksons most ardent critics has been Noam Chomsky, who through his Objectivity and Liberal Scholarship has provided an excellent theoretical framework to enable a critical reading of Jackson, primarily in his depiction of events from 1936-1937. In this work Chomsky points to the subordination of liberal intelligencia, universities in particular, to the military- industrial complex, in this case the American State and big business. In other words, writers of ostensibly objective historical works become compromised by their social, economic and political ties to the prevailing ideology, leading them to interpret events with the notion in mind of the inevitability and desirability of bourgeois democracy. Alongside this, according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, the largely humanist-oriented, occasionally ideologically-minded intellectual-dissenter, who sees his role largely in terms of proffering social critiques, is rapidly being displaced either by experts and specialists, who become involved in special governmental undertakings, or by the generalists-integrators, who become in effect house-ideologies for those in power, providing overall intellectual integration for disparate actions.1 The search for objective truth then is subordinated in these instances to the subjectivity of the author/investigator and in the final instance we are given a partial and distorted view of historical events, as is the case with Jacksons work. The motivations and actions of those directly involved are written out of the story, and instead the logic of liberal scholarship gives precedence to the political leadership of the natural parties of government. As Chomsky points out, Jackson makes it abundantly clear that he is, in favour of liberal democracy, as represented by figures such as Azana, Casares Quiroga, Martinez Barrio, and other responsible national leaders. and, makes little attempt to disguise his antipathy towards the forces of popular revolution in Spain, or their goals. 2 Therefore, mass action is generally regarded as of secondary importance to the manoeuvrings of the Popular Front government, even when in practice it was often powerless. Further, when these masses threaten the natural order of capitalist production, by acts of collectivisation, expropriation, land seizure and abolition of money, they are described as, naà ¯Ã‚ ¿Ã‚ ½ve, counterproductive, ill educated, fundamentally conservative and misled. Only when these masses follow the lead and policies of the natural elite does Jackson recognise and applaud mass contribution, and Jackson fails to recognise the crucial nature of the revolutionary/counterrevolutionary period from the summer of 1936 to 1937 in which, the revolution was largely spontaneous with mass participation of anarchist and socialist industrial and agricultural workers; the counterrevolution was under communist direction3 To partly summarise Chomskys criticisms, two examples of Jacksons subjective analysis of this period are, the role of the Communist Party in Spain and collectivisation in Catalonia. Under a Moscow directive, the PCE was founded in Spain with only 800 members in 1930. This number grew to around 20,000 in 1934 while the PCE had dropped its social fascist stance regarding other left groupings, to embrace all parties of the left under the Popular Front umbrella. Stalin had concluded that international fascismposed a threat after allHis answer was the adoption during 1934/35 of a Popular Front policy for resisting fascism.4 This membership grew to over 250,000 during the first eight months of the war, 40% of this number being made up the petit bourgeoisie. The PCE, again under orders from Moscow, embraced bourgeois democracy, their only task to defend the Republic, and revolutionary action by the masses was not on Stalins agenda. In responding to a plea from help from Spains Popular Front government, Stalin was perusing what he perceived to be in the foreign policy interest of the Soviet UnionWhat Soviet aidbegan to reach Spain in October 1936, was emphatically not intended to advance the cause of social revolution in Republican Spain.5 Jackson however claims, The interrupted movement toward world revolution, as well as the security of the Soviet Union, might well be advanced by a Republican victory in Spain.6 Chomsky rightly regards Jacksons view of The Soviet Union as a nation hungry to embrace world revolution as entirely mistaken, and indeed the Soviet Union of the 1930s had come a long way from the days of the storming of the Winter Palace in the November Revolution of 1917. Russia is a totalitarian regimethe frame of mind its leaders is cynical and opportunist. To expect such men to lead a social revolution in Spain, where the wildest idealism is combined with great independence of character, was out of the question.7 Political purges and show trials in the Soviet Union in 1934-36 had seen potential political opposition to Stalin brutally removed, many being accused, as was Leon Trotsky, of having been in league with Hitler. Russia was then a country with a revolutionary past, not a revolutionary present.8 Stalins main aim in 1936 was to ward off any threat from Hitlers Germany, by allying himself with Britain and France. Accordingly, a proletarian revolution in Spain could not be allowed to succeed, bringing as it would a threat of instability to ruling classes the world over, and a shift in the balance of European power. Communist policy as regards Spain then was one of subordinating their [PCE] national policies to the USSRs supposed international interests.9 In effect this meant the defence of all legitimate middle-class authority at the expense the grass root militancy that could have helped avert the tragic outcome to Spains civil war. As one communist student of the time, critical of such policy noted, But a more revolutionary course will only frighten the democracies, people said. What nonsense! The capitalist democracies were frightened enough already by what was happening in Spain. Stalin wont agree, said others. But was that the case? Would Stalin not have had to do what he did anyway and a lot more, perhaps if we had pursued a more revolutionary course? Could he afford to be seen betraying a proletarian revolution?10 The next bone of contention, is the account Jackson gives of collectivisation. In the initial process of collectivisation, Jackson berates unions in Valencia and Barcelona for abusing their sudden authority to place the sign incautado on all manner of buildings and vehicles.11 However, as Chomsky notes, this wording belies Jacksons ignorance towards the reality of the revolutionary situation. While Jackson recognises the occurrence of ..the most profound social revolution since the fifteenth century..12, it seems that he is not inclined to recognise the actions that are an integral part of such a profound social revolution. Later, Jackson claims that in 1936, the revolutionary tide began to ebb in Cataloniaaccumulating food and supply problems, and the experience of administering villages, frontier posts, and public utilities, had rapidly shown the anarchists the unexpected complexity of modern society.13 Chomsky on the other hand points to the attack led by the Communist Party to destroy the gains made by workers and peasants without the blessing of any legitimate government force. First win the war then make the revolution, was the slogan that epitomised the drive to subordinate the revolutionary aspirations of the masses to the will of the legitimate powers. Collectivisation brought order to the chaotic situation All the parties and organisations solemnly agreed to respect the letter and the spirit of the new law; but within three months the Republican parties were systematically obstructing it; and soon afterwards the communists were sabotaging it..14 and International capitalism was determined to do everything in its power to force the failure of the collectivised Catalan economy.15 Chomsky too challenges Jacksons attitude towards and analysis of war production and distribution in collectivised areas. For example, In Catalonia, the CNT factory committees dragged their heels on war production, claiming that the government deprived them of raw materials and was favouring the bourgeoisie,16 Firstly this is in stark contrast to Jacksons charitable attitude towards production methods in fascist controlled areas, and his fairly uncritical depiction of later communist methods which involved substantially restoring a free market in essential without any apparent benefits to the war effort. Secondly, as Chomsky notes, Jackson does not substantiate his statement with fact. These two criticisms perhaps point to another instance where Jackson noticeably favours traditional capitalist production against that of the collective. In any case, evidence points to the fact that while conditions were favourable, with access to raw materials for example, collective production rivalled that elsewhere in Spain. The war industry in Catalonia had produced ten times more than the rest of Spanish industry put together and .this output could have been quadrupled as from beginning of September if Catalonia had had access to the necessary raw materials that were unobtainable in Spanish territory.17 Further, it is evident that the central government denied much needed financial assistance because of its lack of sympathy with, rather hostility towards collectivisation. Only in exchange for government control would they give financial assistance.18 Whatever accusations may be levelled at the running of the collectives, at least two points must be remembered. Firstly, in many instances, collectivisation came as the result of a huge surge from below, The revolution was like a dog shaking itself when it comes out of the water the Spanish people shaking itself free of 400 years injustice. There was nothing we militants could do but go ahead or shoot ourselves.19 Secondly, against overwhelming odds, the Catalan working class kept collectivised production going for thirty months of war.20 In conclusion, this paper has only managed to briefly capture Chomskys detailed criticism of Jackson, and to follow on from Chomsky is no easy task given his coherent, thoroughly researched critique. Chomsky highlights Jacksons apparent lack of understanding of the true nature of revolutionary struggle, which leads him to mistakenly identify the 1930s Soviet Union as a revolutionary force and to disparage the actions of mass movements lacking conventional political leadership. The first mistaken belief is, as Chomsky points out, entirely in keeping with the American Cold War mythology that has invented an international Communist conspiracy directed from Moscow to justify its own interventionist policies.21 The two beliefs together lead him to significantly underplay the destructive role played by Communist policy in Spain, which, while not wholly to blame for the Fascist victory, significantly dented the workers will to fight. Many theorists have argued that only a successful revolution could have ultimately beaten the fascists, and that an early arming of workers could have averted three years of carnage. However, We werent being armed because the Republican authorities were more frightened of the working class than off the military. (Francisco Cabrera, Communist Youth, Seville) Communist insistence on an exclusively Popular Front, petty bourgeois programme was disastrous, which ultimately undermined the fight against Fascism. The loss of the Civil War in Spain to the fascists was more than just a military defeat, as in the words of Ronald Fraser, For the objective was not only to castigate the defeated but to crush for all time working class militancy and the threat of socialist revolution, so that Spanish capitalism could prosper. Quotes 1 Chomsky, N, Objectivity and Liberal Scholarship, p30 2 Chomsky, p75 3 Chomsky, p81 4 Blinkhorn, Democracy and Civil War in Spain, p36 5 Blinkhorn, p36 6 Jackson, The Spanish Republic and the Civil War 1931-1939, p259 7 Chomsky, p84 8 Chomsky, p85 9 Fraser, Blood of Spain, p328 10 Fraser, p329 11 Jackson, p279 12 Jackson, p277 13 Jackson, p314 14 Fraser, p215 15 Fraser, p216 16 Jackson, p365 17 Chomsky, p89 18 Chomsky, p90 19 Fraser, p229 20 Fraser, p234 21 Chomsky, p86 Bibliography Jackson, G, 1965, The Spanish Republic and the Civil War 1931-1939, Princeton University Press Fraser, R, 1979, Blood of Spain, Penguin Blinkhorn, M, Democracy and Civil War in Spain Chomsky, N, Objectivity and Liberal Scholarship

Rainfall Pattern in Enugu State, Nigeria

Rainfall Pattern in Enugu State, Nigeria CHAPTER ONE 1.0  INTRODUCTION Enugu State is located in the southeastern part of Nigeria created in 1991 from the old Anambra state and the principal cities in the state are Enugu,Agani,Awgu,Udi,Oji-River and Nsukka. The state shares borders with Abia and Imo State to the south, Ebonyi State to the East, Benue state to the Northeast, Kogi state to the Northwest and Anambra state to the West. Enugu, the capital city of Enugu state, is approximately 21/2 driving hours away from Port Harcourt where coal shipments exited Nigeria. The word â€Å"Enugu† (from Enu Ugwu) means â€Å"the top of the hill†. The first European settlers arrived in the area in 1909, led by a British mining engineer, named Albert Kitson. In his quest for silver, he discovered coal in the Udi Ridge, colonial Governor of Nigeria Frederick Lugard took keen interest in the discovery, and by 1914 the first shipment of coal was made to Britain. As mining activities increased in the area, a permanent cosmopolitan settlement emerged, supported by a railway system. Enugu acquired township status in 1917 and became strategic to Britain interests. Foreign businesses began to move into Enugu, the most notable of which were John Holt, Kingsway Stores, British Bank of West Africa and United Africa Company. From Enugu the British administration was able to spread its influence over the southern province of Nigeria. The colonial past of Enugu is today evidenced by the Georgian building types and meandering narrow roads within the residential area originally reserved for the whites, an area which is today called the Government Reserved Area (GRA). The state Government and the Local government are the levels of government in Enugu state and have 17 Local Government areas. Economically, the state is predominantly rural and agrarian, with a substantial proportion of its working population engaged in farming, although trading (18.8%) and services (12.9%) are also important. In the urban areas trading is the dominant occupation, followed by services. A small proportion of the population is also engaged in manufacturing activities, with the most pronounced among them located in Enugu, Oji, Ohebedim and Nsukka. The state boasts of a number of markets especially at each of the divisional headquarters, prominent of which is the Ogbete Main market in the State capital, Electricity supply is relatively stable in Enugu and its Environs. The Oji River power station (which used to supply electricity to all of Eastern Nigeria) is located in Enugu state. The state had a population of 3,267,837 people at the census held in 2006 (estimated at o ver 3.8 million in 2012), it is home of the Igbo of southeastern Nigeria. The average temperature in this city is cooler to mild (60 degrees Fahrenheit) in its cooler months and gets warmer to hot in its warmer months (upper 80 degrees Fahrenheit) and very good for outdoor activities with family and friends or just for personal leisure. Enugu has good soil-land and climatic conditions all year round, sitting at about 223 meters (732 ft) above sea level, and the soil is well drained during its rainy seasons. The main temperature in Enugu state in the hottest month of February is about 87.16 0F (30.64 0C), while the lowest temperatures occur in the month of November, reaching 60.54 0F (15.86 0C). The lowest rainfall of about 0.16 cubic centimeters (0.0098 cu in) is normal in February, while the highest is about 35.7 cubic centimeters (2.18 cu in) in July. The differences in altitude and relief create a large variation in climate in various regions of the country. In places that are characterized as semi-arid zones, climate shows wide fluctuation from year to year and even within seasons in the year. Semi arid regions receive very small, irregular, and unreliable rainfall (Workneh, 1987). The annual cycle of the climatology of the rainfall over tropical Africa and in particular over Nigeria, is strongly determined by the position of the Inter Tropic Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Griffiths, 1971). Variations in rainfall pattern throughout the country are the result of differences in elevation and seasonal changes in the atmospheric pressure systems that control the prevailing winds. The climate of Nigeria is characterized by high rainfall variation (Yilma et al., 1994). In Nigeria, several regions receive rainfall throughout the year, but in some regions rainfall is seasonal and low making irrigation necessary (Alemeraw and Eshetu, 2009). Rainfall is the most critical and key variable both in atmospheric and hydrological cycle. Rainfall patterns usually have spatial and temporal variability. This variability affects agricultural production, water supply, transportation, environment and urban planning, thus, the entire economy of a country, and the existence of its people. R ainfall variability is assumed to be the main cause for the frequently occurring climate extreme events such as drought and flood. These natural phenomena affect badly the agricultural production and hence the economy of the nation. In regions where the year-to-year variability is high, people often suffer great calamities due to floods or droughts. Even though damage due to extremes of rainfall cannot be avoided completely, a forewarning could certainly be useful (Nicholls, 1980). Nigeria is one of the countries whose economy is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and also facing recurring cycles of flood and drought. Current climate variability is already imposing a significant challenge to Nigeria in general and Enugu in particular, by affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts, as well as by causing natural resource degradation and natural disasters. Recurrent floods in the past caused substantial human life and p roperty loss in many parts of the country. Methods of prediction of rainfall extreme events have often been based on studies of physical effects of rainfall or on statistical studies of rainfall time series. Rainfall forecast is relevance to the agriculture sector, since it contributes significantly to the economy of countries like Nigeria. In order to model and predict hydrologic events, one can use stochastic methods like time series methods. Numerous attempts have been made to predict behavioral pattern of rainfall using various techniques (Yevjevich, 1972; Dulluer and Kavas, 1978; Tsakiris, 1998). Awareness about the characteristics of the rainfall over an area such as the source, quantity, variability, distribution and the frequency of rainfall is essential for the implication in utilization and associated problems. Assessing rainfall variability is practically useful in making decision, risk management and optimum usage of water resources of countries. Thus, it is important to obtain accurate rainfall forecast at variou s geographic levels of Nigeria and work towards identifying periodicities in order to help policy makers improve their decisions by taking into consideration the available and future water resources. In this study, univariate Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model are used for assessing the rainfall pattern in Enugu State based on data from Nigerian Meteorological Agency. 1.1 Weather and Climate Weather and climate over the earth are not constant with time: they change on different time series ranging from the geological to the diurnal through annual, the difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what condition of the atmosphere over a short period of time and climate is how the atmosphere behaves over relatively long period of time. Seasonal and intra-seasonal time scales. Such variability is an inherent characteristic of the climate. The study of climatic fluctuations involves description and investigation of causes and effects of these fluctuations in the past and their statistical interpretation. Much of the work done is about variability of the two important meteorological parameters: rainfall and temperature. Rainfall is a term used to refer to water falling in drops after condensation of the atmospheric vapor. Also rainfall is the resultant product of a series of complex interactions taking place within the earth-atmosphere system. Rainfa ll is only water that falls from the sky, whereas precipitation is any wet things that fall from the sky, which include snow, frozen rain.etc. Water in all its forms and in all its various activities plays a crucial role in sustaining both the climate and life. It is also a major factor for planning and management of water resource project and agricultural production. Even though Nigeria enjoys a fairly good amount of rainfall, wide variability in its distribution with respect to space and time are responsible for the two extremes events (floods and droughts) (Yilma et. al,1994). 1.2 Rainfall Characteristics Rainfall varies with latitude, elevation, topography, seasons, distance from the sea, and coastal Sea-surface temperature. Nigeria enjoys the humid tropical climate type. Because of its location just north of the equator, also, Nigeria enjoys a truly tropical climate characterized by the hot and wet conditions associated with the movement of the inter-Tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) north and south of the equator. While there is a general decrease in rainfall in Nigeria, the coastal area is experiencing slight increase. Apart from the general southward shift in rainfall patterns, the duration has also reduced from 50-360 (1993-2003) to 30-280 (2003-2013) rainy days per year. This has created ecological destabilization and altered the pattern of the vegetation belt especially in the northern part of the country. The rainfall pattern has also enhanced wind erosion and desertification, soil erosion and coastal flooding in the north, east and coastal areas of Nigeria respectively. The country experiences consistently high temperatures all year round. Since temperature varies only slightly, rainfall distribution, over space and time, becomes the single most important factor in differentiating the seasons and climatic distribution are however dependent on the two air masses that prevail over the country. Their influences are directly linked to the movement of the ITCZ, north and south of the equator. The two air masses are the Tropical maritime(Tm) and the Tropical continental (Tc). The former is associated with the moisture-laden south-west winds (south westerlies) which blow from the Atlantic Ocean, while the latter is associated with the dry and dusty north-east winds (easterlies) which blow from the Sahara Desert. Conversely, with the movement of the ITCZ into the Northern Hemisphere, the rain-bearing south westerlies prevail as far inland as possible to bring rain fall during the wet season. The implication is that there is a prolonged rainy season in the far south, while the far north undergoes long dry periods annually. Nigeria, therefore, has two major seasons, the lengths of which vary from north to south. The mean annual rainfall along the coast in the south-east is 4000mm while it is 500mm in the north-east. Nigeria can, thus be broadly divided into the following climatic regions: the humid sub-equatorial, in the southern lowlands the hot tropical continental, in the far north the moderated sub-temperate in the high plateaus and mountains the hot, wet tropical, in the hinterland (the middle-belt ) 1.3 The main effects of Rainfall Trends in rainfall extremes have enormous implications. Extreme rainfall events cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure. They also cause disruption to human activities, injury, and loss of life. Socioeconomic activities including agriculture, power generating, water supply, human health, etc. are also very sensitive to climate variations. As a result, Nigeria economy is heavily dependent on rainfall for generating employment, income, and foreign currency. Thus, rainfall is considered as the most important climatic element that influences Nigeria agriculture. The severity and frequency of occurrence of rainfall extremes events (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) vary for different parts of the country. Drought: Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. It is often referred to as a â€Å"creeping phenomenon† and its impacts vary from region to region. Drought can therefore be difficult for people to understand; it is equally difficult to define, because what may be considered a drought in, say, Bali (six days without rain) would certainly not be considered a drought in Libya (annual rainfall less than 180 mm). Some drought years have coincided with EN events, while others have followed it. According to DDAEPA (2011) the trend of decreasing annual rainfall and increased rainfall variability is contributing to drought conditions in Nigeria Administration. The average annual rainfall patterns of Abuja for the periods 1999 to 2008 and 1984 to 1991 show two important trends. First, annual average rainfall has declined from the mean value by about 8.5% and 10% respectively. Secondly, the variability of rainfall shows an overall increasing trend, suggesting greater rainfall unreliab ility. These rainfall patterns have led to serious drought/flood episodes throughout the Administration. Flood: Floods are known as the most frequent and devastating natural disasters in both developed and developing countries (Osti et al., 2008). Between 2000 and 2008 East Africa has experienced many episodes of flooding. Almost all of these flood episodes have significantly affected large parts of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s topography characteristics has made the country pretty vulnerable to floods and resulting destruction and damage to life, economic, livelihoods, infrastructure, services and health system (FDPPA, 2007). Flooding is common in Ethiopia during the rainy season between June and September and the major type of flooding which the country is experiencing are flash flood and river floods (FDPPA, 2007). Like other regions of Nigeria, the issue of flood continues to be of growing concern in Enugu especially to peoples residing in lowlands, along or near the flood courses as well as village located at the foot of hills and mountains. Flood disasters are occurring more frequently, and having an ever more dramatic impact on Enugu in terms of the costs on lives, livelihoods and environmental resources. The topography of Enugu Administration mainly consists of mountains and hills with steep slope, valleys, and river basins. The catchment characteristics accompanied with its large area coverage coupled with torrential rain fall during the short and long rainy season had been the main factors that contribute to the pervious flood events. Soil Erosion: when soil moves from one location to another, it is referred to as soil erosion. The impact of rainfall striking the surface can cause soil erosion; erosion is a concern for farmers as their valuable, nutrient rich top soil can be washed away from rainfall. It can also weaken structures such as bridges or wash out roads. Vegetation can decrease the amount of soil that is eroded during a rain. Erosion has been going on and has produced river valleys and shaped hills and mountains. Such erosion is generally slow but can cause a rapid increase in the rate at which soil is eroded (i.e. a rate faster than natural weathering of bedrock can produce new soil). This has resulted in a loss of productive soil from crop and grazing land, as well as layers of infertile soil being deposited on formerly fertile crop lands: the formation of gullies: silting of lakes and streams, and land slips. 1.4 Aim and Objectives of the study The main aim of this study is to analyze rainfall pattern in Enugu State using appropriate time series methods based on 15 years (January, 1999-Decimeber, 2013) data recorded at Nigerian Meteorological Agency (Enugu State). Specific Objectives 1. To fit appropriate time series model to the monthly rainfall data. 2. To forecast the rainfall pattern in the study area. 1.5  Data source The monthly rainfall data in millimeters for the period January, 1999 to December, 2013, collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (Enugu State) were used in the study. The site was chosen due to availability of relatively long series of meteorological data, the data is a secondary data. 1.6 Significance of the Study Knowledge of what happens to the water that reaches the earth surface will assist the study of many surface and subsurface water problems, for efficient control and management of water resources. For a country like Nigeria, whose welfare depends very much on rain-fed agriculture, a quantitative knowledge of water requirements of the region, availability of water for plant growth and supplemental irrigation, etc. on a monthly or seasonal basis is an essential requirement for agricultural development. In this regard, increased capacity to manage future climate change and weather extremes can also reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, lead to better resistance. Assessing seasonal rainfall characteristics based on past records is essential to evaluate rainfall extreme risk and to contribute to development of mitigation strategies. Therefore, a reliable rainfall forecasting and assessing behavior at station, regional and national levels is very importan t.

Essay --

William Shakespeare's Hamlet presents the generic elements found in Renaissance revenge tragedies ("Revenge Tragedy"). However, although Hamlet is a revenge tragedy by definition, Shakespeare complicates the basic revenge plot by creating three revenge plots out of one. By adding significant innovations, Shakespeare creates "three concentric rings of revenge" (Frye 90), depicting an indecisive protagonist who is an intellectual rather than a physical hero, an ambiguous ghost, and several problematic aspects of the play, such as the reason for Hamlet's delay, the confusion of time, and the truth behind Hamlet's apparent madness. In a typical revenge tragedy, a hero is called upon by the ghost of a family member to avenge his death ("Revenge Tragedy"). Hamlet is the main protagonist and hero called upon by his father's ghost to "revenge his foul and most unnatural murder" (1.5.31). When Hamlet first hears that his father was murdered, he exclaims, "Haste me to know't, that I, with wings as swift...may sweep to my revenge" (1.5.35-37). He is hungry to avenge his father; however, Hamlet does nothing and at the end of Act II he scolds himself that "this player...could force his soul so to his own conceit...all for nothing...yet, [he]...can say nothing for a king upon whose property and most dear life a damned defeat was made" (2.2.578-598). Hamlet is upset that he hasn't yet acted to avenge his father, but some mere actor can build up so much emotion for nothing. Shakespeare complicates the plot because revenge tragedies are supposed to have a courageous and aggressive protagonist who swiftly carries out his de ed of revenge; instead, Shakespeare modifies the hero and portrays Hamlet as an indecisive and contemplative man. Additional... ...e to properly fill his role as being both the avenger and the murderer, and so resorts to feigning madness to escape the reality of his life. Through the use of soliloquies, modern readers are able to see the internal struggles of Hamlet's character. This allows them to sympathize with him because we can better understand how the loss of not only his entire family to murder, but also his best friends to betrayal affected Hamlet's ability to act. Furthermore, his father's spirit giving Hamlet the burden of vengeance did no justice; instead, it resulted in more emotional disturbance and problems. Overall, at the end of the play, modern readers see Hamlet as a sympathetic character because throughout the play we can observe his character and emotional development as he progresses from a melancholic and contemplative coward to an impulsive protagonist accepting death.